Imports of Russian oil into China could increase for the third consecutive month in February, potentially exceeding the threshold of 2 million barrels per day. However, even the more active purchases by independent Chinese refineries, which are taking advantage of record discounts offered by Russia, fail to compensate for the decline in India’s imports. As a result, oil continues to accumulate at sea and in Russian warehouses, and production is gradually beginning to decrease.
Data from maritime transport monitoring companies Vortexa Analytics and Kpler show that, by the end of the current month, China could import between 2.07 and 2.08 million barrels per day — an absolute record for maritime deliveries, according to Reuters. In January, imports were approximately 1.7 million barrels per day.
China replaced India as the main buyer of Russian oil in November. Last summer, India imported up to 2 million barrels per day, and the daily average for the entire year 2025 was 1.7 million barrels. However, in January, volumes fell to 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day, a level similar to that estimated for February, according to Kpler’s forecast. According to sources cited by Bloomberg, by April imports could halve compared to current levels.
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