Russia is facing increasing pressures on the front and in the economy, and President Vladimir Putin currently has “only bad options,” says Kaupo Rosin, the Director General of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS), in an interview given to The Telegraph.
The human losses of the Russian army exceed the current recruitment rate, while Ukrainian attacks on oil infrastructure are affecting Moscow’s revenues, according to assessments by the Estonian service. Russia’s budget deficit could reach approximately 10 trillion rubles, the equivalent of about 100 billion euros.
Kaupo Rosin states, in an interview given to the publication The Telegraph, that within Moscow’s power circles, there are increasingly numerous voices asking Putin to rethink the war. In his opinion, stopping the conflict could be perceived as a sign of weakness, while continuing the fights risks amplifying economic problems and internal tensions.
“What Putin has left, at this moment, are only bad options,” declared the head of Estonian intelligence, warning that, in the event of a possible regime change in Moscow, this could happen abruptly, as the system might be more fragile than it seems.
Regarding the possibility of a new mobilization in Russia, Estonian services estimate at approximately 50% the chances that Moscow will trigger a new wave of recruitment.
At the same time, EFIS considers it unlikely that Russia will launch a conventional military attack on a NATO state in the near future, as the alliance continues to provide an effective level of deterrence.
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