The Kremlin’s forces could carry out a “limited military attack” on a NATO country “bordering Russia” in the coming months, warned Thursday the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS). According to the assessment of the Danish secret services, the risk of such a scenario remains “low, but increasing”. Instead, Russia will intensify its hybrid warfare actions against the countries of the Northern Alliance.
Thus, according to DDIS, there is a possibility that Russia may deploy a small number of troops, without military insignia, on the territory of a NATO country “under the pretext of protecting local Russian minorities”.
“A limited attack would be a desperate measure on Russia’s part and, just like in the case of escalating hybrid attacks, it could occur in the coming months. The aim is to prevent the allocation of European resources in support of Ukraine and to create divisions within NATO, in the event that the Alliance does not reach a consensus on adopting a collective response,” is stated in the report of the Danish secret services.
A limited military attack could consist of isolated strikes with long-range weapons on infrastructure vital to Ukraine’s support. In such a situation, Russia could claim that its weapons (missiles) hit NATO territory because they were jammed by Ukrainians.
Similarly, the Russians could use Ukrainian drones, in a false flag operation, to attack NATO territory.
At the same time, the Danish intelligence services consider a large-scale Russian invasion of a NATO country “extremely unlikely”.
In an assessment made last year, the Danes estimated that Russia is preparing for three types of war with NATO, depending on the evolution of the war in Ukraine, the rearmament capacity of European countries, and the readiness of the US to assist its European allies in NATO.
Thus, according to this estimate, in order to plan an invasion of a NATO country, the Kremlin would need approximately six months to strengthen and train its military forces. In total, Russia still needs another two years to become a real threat for triggering a regional war and five years to start a large-scale war in Europe.
Mark Rutte’s message to Putin: “I assure you that the Russians are perfectly aware of this.”
In summary, Russia could attack a NATO country in 6 months, could trigger a “regional” war in 2 years, and could sustain a large-scale invasion in Europe in 5 years.
“The terms mentioned above remain valid for the three types of war mentioned. However, this updated assessment refers to Russia’s availability and capacity to escalate actions against the West in the coming months, either by deploying more frequent and severe hybrid attacks, or by carrying out limited military attacks against one or more NATO countries that border Russia. Russia could do this even if the war in Ukraine continues and Russia is not prepared for a regional war or a large-scale war against NATO,” is stated in the report of the Danish secret services.
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