Russian consumers are preparing for a new wave of price increases, against the backdrop of announced tax hikes that will come into effect from 2026. The inflation expected by the population significantly increased in October, according to data published by the Central Bank of Russia.
If in September the Russians expected an annual inflation of 12.6%, in October the expectations rose to 13.3%, shows the survey conducted by FOM (Public Opinion Fund). This is the fastest monthly increase of the indicator in the last year.
Economist Dmitri Polevoi explains this reaction by the announcements regarding the future increase in VAT, the rising fuel prices and the increase in the recycling tax (“utilizbornîi sbor”). Gazprombank analysts say that inflationary expectations “have entered a race” driven by the prospect of several shocks with an inflationary effect.
In particular, those who have savings are increasingly worried: among them, inflation expectations have risen from 11.1% to 12.3%. But even those without savings expect higher price increases – from 13.7% in September to 13.8% in October.