The irrational confidence of the Russians in the prosperity of the Russian economy, which emerged against the backdrop of patriotic enthusiasm at the start of the war, began to erode rapidly.
The index of citizens’ expectations regarding the country’s development prospects for the next year dropped to 107 points in January 2026 — the lowest level since the end of 2022, according to a monthly survey conducted by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
The index’s drop, by 10 points in a single month, is the most abrupt since the mobilization shock of the fall of 2022. At the same time, the indices of expectations regarding the country’s prospects for the next five years, as well as the index of expectations related to personal financial situation, have also reached the lowest levels of the past three years. They have dropped to 109 points and 104 points, respectively.
Expectations regarding the “level of production” in the economy (125 points) and the “standard of living” (81 points) have deteriorated even more sharply, reaching their lowest values since March and November 2022, respectively.
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