“We are not at war, but we no longer live in peace either.” The statement by the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, made last month, was brief, but full of historical echoes.
It lacks the drama of Sir Edward Grey’s famous words, spoken on the eve of the First World War — “The lamps are going out all over Europe” — but it warns, just as clearly, that a page of history is turning.
In recent months, several suspected drone and Russian aircraft incursions have violated the airspace of some NATO countries. In parallel, hostile maritime and cyber activities have intensified.
After nearly eight decades of inviolable peace, Europe is beginning to wonder if its tranquility has, in fact, turned into an illusion. The increasingly invoked notion is that of a “gray zone” – an ambiguous state, between war and peace, where challenges do not wear uniforms and the fronts are digital, economic or psychological.
An Unsettled Europe
Friedrich Merz is not the only one warning of the danger. The former NATO Secretary General, George Robertson, drew attention to the vulnerability of European civil infrastructure to cyber attacks.
“Can we believe that it is just a coincidence that sabotage appears simultaneously in so many places in Europe?”, he rhetorically asked at an event in Scotland. “We need to worry about attacks in the gray zone. It will be too late if the lights go out.”
In recent weeks, several European airports have been temporarily closed due to suspicious drones. NATO planes have been lifted from the ground, and the incidents have revealed the continent’s lack of preparedness after decades of “strategic sleep”.
The Shadow of American Doubt
Against the backdrop of these events, uncertainty is also growing about the strength of security guarantees offered by the United States to NATO partners.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that the war in Ukraine would not have broken out if he had been in the White House. However, the incidents that are now shaking Europe are happening during his term.
His ambivalence towards the Western alliance, contradictions in defining “red lines”, and an oscillating relationship with Vladimir Putin fuel fears that Russia is deliberately testing the limits of European patience.
In the U.S., transatlantic tensions barely penetrate the public sphere, dominated by internal crises: the assassination of Charlie Kirk, the deployment of the National Guard in several cities, and the government shutdown.
The Drones Shaking the European Order
The most serious recent violation of NATO airspace was reported by Poland, where several Russian drones entered national territory. Although American officials have not confirmed whether it was a deliberate action, the scale of the incident was unprecedented.
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