The United States’ trade deficit with the European Union reached a record level in 2025, surpassing for the first time the one with China. This trend could prompt the Trump administration to take measures that risk seriously straining transatlantic relations in 2026, warns Foreign Policy publication. In this context, analysts say that European countries should prepare in advance for unpredictable economic policy in Washington.
Data for the first ten months of 2025 shows that the US trade deficit in goods trade increased by 77 billion dollars, equivalent to an increase of 8% compared to the previous year. The main contributor was no longer China, but the European Union, where the deficit reached about 190 billion dollars, compared to 175 billion in relation to Beijing.
While China’s trade surplus with the US decreased by 28%, that of the European Union remained relatively constant. These figures could be uncomfortable for President Donald Trump, who promised that raising tariffs would reduce the trade imbalance, but recent statistics indicate a contrary trend.
Three options on the White House table
1. Deliberate weakening of the dollar
A strong dollar makes imports cheaper and American exports more expensive. One of the options considered would be to force foreign investors, including from Europe, to sell US government bonds, which could lead to a significant depreciation of the US currency. European countries hold about 20% of these bonds.
According to Foreign Policy, such a topic could be raised at the G7 summit in June, hosted in Évian, France. However, coordinating such sales would be extremely difficult, as the bonds are dispersed among central banks, private funds, and other investors. Moreover, a weaker dollar would mean a stronger euro, which could affect European exporters, perhaps even more severely than tariffs.
2. Pressure to increase defense spending
The new US National Security Strategy promotes the idea of a “burden-sharing” among allies, under American coordination. Participation in this mechanism could bring commercial benefits, such as tariff reductions or preferential conditions for the purchase of American weaponry.
The G20 summit, which will take place this year in Florida under the US presidency, could become a forum for such requests. Poland, a special invitee even though it is not a G20 member, is often cited as an example, after it increased its defense spending to 4.5% of GDP in 2025. The model could be used to put pressure on other European countries.
3. Selective agreements with Russia
The American strategy places increased importance on access to critical minerals and energy resources. Russia is a major supplier of essential raw materials, including palladium, platinum, vanadium, and antimony. A potential agreement that would favor American companies could leave the European Union in a difficult position, considering the persistent dependence of the European automotive and aerospace industries on these resources.
According to analysts, the discussions are not purely theoretical. Some recent decisions in Moscow have kept open the possibility of the return of the American company ExxonMobil to the Sahalin-1 energy project, from which it had been excluded after the seizure of its assets. The Trump administration could offer punctual exemptions from sanctions for American companies, while at the same time limiting the access of European competitors.
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