In the summer of 2022, analyst CNNBrett McGurk, who held leading positions in national security during the presidencies of George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden, accompanied President Joe Biden to a summit in Saudi Arabia with Middle Eastern leaders. During a working session, someone asked Biden to name a problem that kept him awake at night. Without blinking, Biden spoke about nuclear war.
McGurk was surprised by the response, as the threat seemed to have been under control in recent decades. But, at that time, with Europe involved in a war initiated by Russia, a nuclear power, the erosion of nuclear arms control agreements, coupled with the rise of artificial intelligence and a blossoming nuclear arms race with China, it is surprising that the issue has not received more attention, considering the stakes.
Biden later told Jake Tapper of CNN that Russia’s miscalculations in Ukraine “could end in Armageddon,” although he clarified that the risks remained low at that time.
The most watched movie on Netflix is “House of Dynamite,” about a nuclear missile heading for Chicago and eluding air defense. Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw nuclear exercises, including a new missile system that can hit anywhere on Earth. In response, President Donald Trump ordered the “immediate” resumption of nuclear weapons testing after a three-decade moratorium. Russia threatened to do the same.
But, what exactly is happening?
Relaxation of restrictions
The centerpiece of this framework is known as the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or START, which, once signed in 1991, reversed the arms race between the US and the Soviet Union, imposing a reduction of the nuclear arsenal and its verification in both countries.
The START agreement was concluded shortly before the fall of the Soviet Union, but was later extended through a 2010 agreement between the United States and Russia to further reduce arsenals and maintain mutual verification. This agreement, known as the New START, was extended for five years — until February 2026 — in the early months of Biden’s presidency.
Then came the war in Ukraine, after which Russia suspended its participation in the treaty and blocked American inspectors’ access to its nuclear facilities. Hopes for renewing the treaty or negotiating further extensions have remained dormant.
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