Russian forces lack the ability to build a strategic reserve and will not be able to overcome the stage of costly attrition battles throughout the year 2026, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimate, quoted by Euromaidan Press. Thus, despite the fact that Moscow has met its recruitment objectives for 2025, the deficit of fresh troops, capable of launching larger offensives, translates into the fact that the Kremlin’s battlefield strategy will continue to be limited in terms of action area and pace.
ISW analysts quoted Kirilo Budanov, head of the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence (HUR), who stated for the Ukrainian television station Suspilne on December 27 that Russia had met its goal of recruiting 403,000 soldiers in 2025.
Russia will exceed this threshold by the end of the year and intends to mobilize another 409,000 soldiers in 2026, the head of Ukrainian intelligence specified. However, according to Budanov’s assessment, Russia has failed to build a strategic reserve and continues to “constantly” engage the operational reserve in active front-line battles.
“ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin is creating premises for partial involuntary calls of reserves to support its military personnel and possibly to try to form a strategic reserve, given the high casualty rate in Ukraine,” the group of experts wrote.
The Institute for the Study of War assesses that, although Russia maintains a constant flow of personnel, one sufficient to cover its losses, it is still “unable to build reserves large enough to be able to flood a sector of the front” without weakening other areas. The redistribution of units to allow local offensives often leaves the flanks exposed – vulnerabilities that Ukrainian forces have recently exploited in several areas along the front.
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