The options for US sanctions against Russia have been “on hold” for a long time – from strong to weak packages – and this week, US President Donald Trump opted for the middle ground, according to The Wall Street Journal.
President Trump wanted to make sure before taking the toughest measure so far against Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Do you agree with me?”, he asked his advisers in the Oval Office on Wednesday. He consulted with Rubio, Bessent, and Hegseth. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth responded affirmatively, according to a person familiar with Wednesday afternoon’s meeting. A few hours earlier, Trump had met with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and asked him to prepare a series of sanctions against the Russian oil industry, marking the first direct US measures against Russia during Trump’s second term. “I felt it was time. I’ve waited a long time,” Trump later told reporters.
For several months, Trump had been threatening such measures, but each threat faded as he continued to believe he could negotiate with Putin over the war in Ukraine, an attitude that frustrated decision-makers in the US and Europe.
His patience ran out
But the president’s patience eventually ran out, officials said, after he concluded that Putin was stalling and after he continued to see images of Russian attacks in Ukraine. A few hours after Trump canceled the planned summit with Putin in Budapest, considering it a waste of time, Russia launched new missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, hitting various buildings, including a kindergarten. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the attack showed that Russia had not been subjected to enough external pressure to negotiate. Trump did not directly comment on the attacks, but was outraged by such aggressions, even at times when he felt he had made progress with Putin, administration officials said, quoted by The Wall Street Journal.
Trump believes that the ceasefire in Gaza he negotiated has created momentum to end the war in Ukraine, officials said, but Putin’s stubbornness persisted. “Every time I talk to Vladimir, we have good conversations, but then we don’t get anywhere,” Trump said on Wednesday.
The sanction packages have been ready for several months
Sources who wished to remain anonymous told WSJ that the US sanction packages against the Russian oil industry had been prepared and have been ready for months, in case Trump decided to act. Trump received three sanction plans, officials said: a severe option, which directly targeted the Russian industry and high-ranking Russian leaders; a middle option, which targeted the Russian energy industry; and a lighter option, which included more limited sanctions. Trump chose the middle option, which included sanctions against Rosneft, Lukoil, and their subsidiaries. The Trump administration believes the imposed sanctions could significantly affect Russia’s finances, already affected by economic problems and largely dependent on energy exports.
After the announcement, Indian refineries began to review their suppliers, and some Chinese companies temporarily suspended purchases of Russian oil. Trump has not yet given any indication of the possibility of imposing additional sanctions if this measure fails to bring Russia to the negotiating table. A senior White House official said that Trump clearly stated that it is time to end the war, adding that he will continue to seek a peaceful solution to the conflict.
The image of a peacemaker
The new sanctions, specifically targeting energy companies Lukoil and Rosneft, represent Trump’s latest initiative to end the war between Russia and Ukraine and to consolidate his much-desired legacy as a global peacemaker. In last year’s presidential campaign, Trump repeatedly boasted that he would end the war “on the first day” of his term, but peace has not been achieved so far, after months of failed efforts to convince Moscow to seriously negotiate the terms. Sometimes, he tried to pressure Zelensky to make concessions, which led to public and private discussions, WSJ writes. Rubio said the sanctions have not changed their overall goal of pushing Moscow to the negotiating table. “We still want to meet with the Russians,” the Secretary of State told reporters. “The President has repeatedly said, for months, that at some point he will have to do something if we do not make progress in terms of the peace agreement. Today was the day he decided to do something.”
The coldness towards Putin began to become public in June, during the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit, when Trump called his Russian counterpart’s refusal to end the war “wrong”. A phone call between the two, which took place the following month, was much shorter than previous discussions and lacked the warmth with which they used to speak to each other, a senior administration official said.
Trump has other tools at his disposal
Trump has other tools at his disposal to increase pressure on Putin, but so far he has not used them. These include sending long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, imposing new secondary sanctions on any companies doing business with the sanctioned Russian oil giants, or targeting Russia’s vast so-called ghost fleet of illegal oil tankers with new sanctions to reinforce European Union sanctions. “Trump is leaving some things aside because he really wants a deal with Putin,” said Kurt Volker, who was Trump’s envoy to Ukraine during his first administration. “This shows that he is just frustrated that Putin has not yet followed his plans.” Volker said that to get Putin to make serious concessions will require “much more than sanctions” and that sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would be an important next step.
The role sanctions could play
However, the latest sanctions imposed on Rosneft and Lukoil could radically change the economic situation, administration officials said, considering how dependent Russia’s fragile war economy is on oil and gas revenues. A day after the announcement, Indian oil refineries took steps to reduce the flow of oil from Russia to their country, while state-owned Chinese oil companies suspended, at least temporarily, the purchase of Russian oil. Putin acknowledged that the sanctions could affect Russia’s economy, telling reporters on Thursday that “some losses are expected”, but added that “no self-respecting country does anything under pressure”. “Now the question is whether we are witnessing a fundamental reorientation of Trump’s strategy or just a temporary measure to show dissatisfaction with the fact that the Russians have not cooperated at all on the diplomatic front,” said Andrew Weiss, vice president for studies at the think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.