Kiev expects massive political involvement from the White House in the coming months. Ukrainian officials believe that the Trump administration will try to “calm” the conflict on the front in order to secure a Republican majority in Congress.
The United States could attempt a rapid de-escalation or a “calming” of the front in Ukraine before the partial parliamentary (mid-term) elections on November 3, according to governmental sources in Kiev, quoted by the RBC-Ukraine publication. The Washington administration is expected to intensify its diplomatic pressures, even considering a freeze of the conflict on the current alignments, in exchange for security guarantees for Ukraine.
The electoral calculation in Washington and the pressure on Congress
According to sources within the Office of the President of Ukraine, Donald Trump would like to end the acute phase of the war before the autumn vote. The stake is strictly internal: the risk of the Republican Party losing control over the American Congress.
“We assume that the Americans intend to defuse the situation before their fall elections. The tense atmosphere of the electoral campaign may push Trump towards much more decisive steps to achieve rapid progress in the Ukrainian dossier,” a source from the Ukrainian presidential administration declared.
Although diplomatic contacts between Kiev and Trump administration officials remain constant, the success of such a scenario, considered by some Ukrainian officials as a still “very good” option, if it includes solid security guarantees, critically depends on the situation on the ground and Moscow’s willingness to revise its claims.
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