Romania is included on a map published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which documents a series of actions attributed to Russia in Europe, described by analysts as part of a so-called “phase zero” – the stage of informational and psychological preparation for a possible future conflict between Russia and NATO.
According to ISW, this phase includes violations of airspace, espionage activities, sabotage, maritime blockades, arson, and other actions considered hostile. Romania also appears on the map, in the context of Russian drones penetrating national airspace and the thwarting of several sabotage attempts by authorities.
ISW’s assessment comes against the backdrop of intensifying similar actions in other European countries. In Poland, the Operational Command of the Armed Forces reported that on the night of February 1 to 2, radars detected several objects similar to balloons entering Polish airspace from Belarus. Although the number of incidents was smaller than on previous nights, authorities specify that such incursions have occurred four times in five days.
ISW believes that Russia has de facto annexed Belarus and uses these incursions into the airspace of NATO countries, such as Poland and Lithuania, as part of its “phase zero” strategy.
A report published by ISW on October 12 also refers to the situation at the border between Estonia and Russia. Estonian authorities temporarily closed a segment of road crossing Russian territory after observing a group of armed Russian soldiers, without insignia, near the area.
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