{"id":95575,"date":"2025-10-13T07:58:38","date_gmt":"2025-10-13T04:58:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/disinfo.md\/the-russians-are-no-longer-coming-with-the-tank-moscow-is-changing-its-combat-model-and-could-strike-nato-sooner-than-expected-warns-isw\/"},"modified":"2025-10-27T23:13:42","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T21:13:42","slug":"the-russians-are-no-longer-coming-with-the-tank-moscow-is-changing-its-combat-model-and-could-strike-nato-sooner-than-expected-warns-isw","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/disinfo.md\/en\/the-russians-are-no-longer-coming-with-the-tank-moscow-is-changing-its-combat-model-and-could-strike-nato-sooner-than-expected-warns-isw\/","title":{"rendered":"The Russians are no longer coming with the tank. Moscow is changing its combat model and could strike NATO sooner than expected, warns ISW"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>A new report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published on October 11, raises an alarm for allied states: Russia no longer needs entire tank divisions to become a direct threat to NATO. Rapid adaptation, drone warfare, and flexible use of human resources can allow Moscow to act much earlier than the West plans.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>According to ISW, the Russian Federation could represent &#8220;a significant threat to NATO in a time horizon much closer to the present, without needing to completely rebuild its tank fleet.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The American think tank warns that increasingly frequent sabotage and reconnaissance activities with drones on critical infrastructure in Europe are clear signs that Moscow has already entered what experts call &#8220;Phase Zero&#8221; &#8211; the preliminary stage of a potential conflict, aimed at psychological and informational preparation of the field.<\/p>\n<h2>&#8220;Phase Zero&#8221;: The shadow war has already begun<\/h2>\n<p>According to the report, Russia is conducting large-scale hybrid operations &#8211; from cyber attacks and propaganda actions to aerial reconnaissance missions &#8211; intended to test NATO&#8217;s reactions and vulnerabilities.<\/p>\n<p>The purpose of these actions is not only military, but also psychological: to induce uncertainty, to erode confidence in collective defense, and to prepare European public opinion for a confrontation perceived as inevitable.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Phase Zero&#8221; is, in fact, an older Russian concept of maskirovka &#8211; a term that denotes the art of hiding real intentions through disinformation operations and indirect pressure.<\/p>\n<h2>A Kremlin that learns from losses<\/h2>\n<p>ISW notes that, despite the massive losses suffered in Ukraine, Russia has maintained its ability to generate forces and create strategic personnel reserves.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts believe that Moscow could <i>&#8220;deploy significant fighting power on NATO&#8217;s eastern flank&#8221;<\/i> just a few months after the end of the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, Russia is developing new operational concepts that allow it to wage a large-scale conventional war without relying on heavy armor and armored vehicles, while also limiting the enemy&#8217;s ability to use these means.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><i>&#8220;Russia is learning to achieve the effects of an air ban on the battlefield without having air superiority&#8221;<\/i>, the report warns.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>This means that Moscow can paralyze the enemy&#8217;s logistics and mobility using drones, precision artillery, and electronic warfare, without needing massive aviation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A new report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published on October 11, raises an alarm for allied states: Russia no longer needs entire tank divisions to become a direct threat to NATO. Rapid adaptation, drone warfare, and flexible use of human resources can allow Moscow to act much earlier than the<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":94602,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1135],"tags":[8923,9141,11373,1208,1146,8940,1151],"class_list":{"0":"post-95575","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-foreign-affairs-en","8":"tag-drone-en","9":"tag-report","10":"tag-isw","11":"tag-razboi-en","12":"tag-rusia-en","13":"tag-threat","14":"tag-nato"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Russians are no longer coming with the tank. 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