The war in Ukraine will soon enter its third year, with no sign of the fire stopping. It is becoming increasingly clear that many in the West are growing impatient with the impasse and are reluctant to continue offering military support to Ukraine.
However, wars do eventually come to an end, often with one side making concessions in exchange for peace. And throughout the war in Ukraine, influential voices in the West — whether it is the late Henry Kissinger, former President Donald Trump, or NATO official Stian Jenssen, to name a few — have stated that Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia in exchange for peace.
«As an expert in Western military interventions in transnational ethnic conflicts, I have seen how well-intentioned peace agreements offered to the perceived aggressor can unwittingly sow the seeds of renewed conflict. This is because such agreements can give the aggressor through peace what he sought in war: territory,» writes Elis Vllasi, Research Associate and Lecturer in National Security and Foreign Affairs at the University of Tennessee, for The Conversation.
Instead of addressing the root cause of conflicts, these agreements can reward revanchism — the policy of a state claiming territory it once dominated — and encourage an aggressor to use war to achieve its goals. This is especially true when the West rewards aggression with generous peace agreements.
The wars ended with military victories for Slovenia and Croatia over Serbia, and NATO intervention in Bosnia and Kosovo. In the case of the latter two countries, NATO intervention was followed by numerous peace plans imposed by the West.But even after two decades, the smell of war still lingers in the region, as Serbia insists that its survival depends on its ability to represent and protect all Serbs, regardless of where they live, writes the analyst.Of course, every war is different, and the circumstances surrounding the invasion of Ukraine are unique.However, I believe that the examples of Bosnia and Kosovo show that Western-sponsored treaties, when sacrificing land for peace, can store problems for later — especially when it comes to revanchist nations.
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