The Ukrainian front enters its toughest stage so far. As the army advances to Kupiansk, more and more Western analysts warn that the risk of a strategic loss becomes palpable. German journalist Julian Röpcke talks about a mobilization crisis that can no longer be masked, while British analyst Mark Galeotti describes the “rupture” at Pokrovsk, and experts from Kiev draw attention to Ukraine’s number one deficit: people.
An increasingly vulnerable front
“The situation can no longer be hidden either by PR operations of the General Staff or by the government’s attempts to minimize the reality on the ground,” warns German analyst Julian Röpcke from Bild.
He notes that Ukrainian journalists and activists have understood the gravity of the moment, but the army and Western partners do not draw the necessary conclusions from the mistakes of the last two years.
One of the sensitive points: the low efficiency of the armored technology delivered to Ukraine — over 2,000 vehicles — in a war increasingly dominated by attack drones, optical systems, and fiber optic cables in which Russia has heavily invested. Röpcke argues that Ukraine needs to shift the focus to drones and missiles, where it can respond to aggression with more adapted resources to the reality on the battlefield.
But his biggest concern is about mobilization.
“Where are the 17,000 people mobilized each month? Entire brigades exist only on paper, and desertions leave gaps that allow Russian troops to advance,” writes the analyst, suggesting that official estimates of combat capacity are “illusory”.
In his view, Kiev continues to treat the war of attrition with insufficient seriousness. And the consequences are visible: if current trends continue, Ukraine risks losing territories the size of Berlin every month by 2025 — says Röpcke.
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