The autonomous war will not begin with armies of robots marching on the battlefield. In reality, it has already begun — discreetly, but inevitably — on the fronts of eastern Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, in the Middle East. There, an increasing number of military missions are carried out by machines operating at speeds impossible for humans to match, while electronic warfare frequently disrupts the links between operators and their equipment.
According to an analysis signed in Foreign Affairs by retired American general David Petraeus and analyst Isaac C. Flanagan, autonomous systems will soon no longer operate individually. They will operate in groups comparable to platoons or even battalions, capable of sharing information and coordinating actions without direct human intervention. In such a context, the army that waits for human approval for every decision risks losing the initiative.
A transformation of the nature of war
This transition forces armies to rethink not only the way operations are conducted, but the very nature of military conflicts. The challenge is not just technological or industrial, although these aspects are essential.
Ukrainian engineers are rapidly developing autonomous navigation programs, and military technicians are producing drones in unprecedented volumes. In the last year, about 3.5 million drones have been assembled in Ukraine, and production could reach seven million this year. By comparison, in the United States, approximately 300,000–400,000 such systems are produced annually.
Experts say that the American army needs to drastically accelerate production and learn to effectively use autonomous systems.
The difference between drones and autonomous systems
The unmanned systems currently in existence are, for the most part, not autonomous. They depend on the direct control of a human operator through a communications link. For example, MQ-1 Predator type drones have been operated for years by pilots based in the United States, conducting missions thousands of kilometers away.
However, the use of these systems is not new. The first unmanned aircraft appeared during World War II, and guided weapons became operational during the Second World War.
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