Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski stated that Russia no longer holds the initiative in the war, an opinion seemingly shared by numerous European leaders. According to an analysis published by the Atlantic Council, the progress made by Ukraine offers a rare opportunity to intensify pressure on Kremlin leader, Vladimir Putin, and to create the conditions for a negotiated conclusion of the most extensive conflict in Europe since the Second World War.
This window of opportunity could, however, be a temporary one, which is why Ukraine’s European partners must seize the moment and demonstrate their ability to act decisively on the international stage, intensifying the support given to Kiev.
The Unlearned Lesson from 2022
Ukraine’s last real chance to end the war emerged in the final weeks of 2022. The success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkov region and the liberation of the city of Kherson allowed Kiev to seize the initiative on the battlefield, leaving Putin’s army in a state of disarray and demoralization. It seemed, at that moment, that the war was entering a decisive phase and that Ukraine was prepared to repel the Russian invasion. However, at that critical moment, Kiev’s Western partners backed down, and the fear of escalation gave Putin a lifeline.
Due to Western prudence, Russia managed to regroup, mobilize additional human resources, expand its defense production, and build extensive fortifications. By the time Ukraine launched the major offensive the following summer, Russia had already recovered, and the opportunity was lost. The Atlantic Council analysis warns that, as the course of the war seems to be turning back in favor of Ukraine, European leaders must avoid repeating the mistakes of 2022.
Increasingly clear signs of a change in initiative
Starting from 2026, there are increasing signs that the initiative has shifted from Russia to Ukraine. On the front, the Russian army has tried for a year to advance, but has suffered record losses. Although Moscow still has significant reserves of human resources, it is estimated that Putin is currently losing more soldiers in Ukraine than he can effectively recruit without resorting to a general mobilization, a measure considered politically risky.
Ukraine’s position is visibly improving both on and off the battlefield. The national drone industry is developing rapidly, allowing for an extremely efficient campaign of medium-range strikes on Russian logistics, which severely affects the invasion efforts and isolates the occupied Crimean peninsula.
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