“European countries can no longer avoid the <<Russian issue>>, as Russia has chosen war”, states a report from the French Institute for International Relations. Foreign policy analyst Ștefan Popescu explains what should concern us about this report.
“European countries can no longer avoid the ‘Russian issue’, as Russia has chosen war. They have the necessary potential – that is, economic means, military capabilities and technological expertise – to confront Russia until 2030, provided they demonstrate the political will to do so”, it is stated in the report of the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI) titled “Europe-Russia: assessing the balance of power”, published recently.
The report, prepared under the guidance of a Steering Committee composed of nine directors of European think tanks and two qualified experts, analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of the two powers in the event of a conflict in 2030.
The analysis of the balance of power shows that the terrestrial domain remains Europe’s weak point. Even though Europe maintains a qualitative advantage in terms of training, command and combined arms tactics, Russia has a decisive advantage in terms of the number of military personnel, firepower, mobilization capacity and tolerance for losses.
In the aerial domain, Europe enjoys a clear superiority, both quantitatively and qualitatively. However, without massive support from the United States, maintaining European air superiority would require addressing deficits related to stocks, integrated air and missile defense, as well as capabilities to neutralize enemy air defense.
At sea, in space and in cyberspace, Europe also holds the advantage, provided it capitalizes on this by shifting the confrontation to these domains, where Russia’s ability to deny or conceal its actions is more limited.
The nuclear factor remains central in Russia’s escalation strategy, which has lowered the thresholds for use and is trying to use the nuclear threat to paralyze the adversary’s decisions. Europe depends on the nuclear guarantees of its partners (e.g., USA, UK, France) to ensure its strategic balance.
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