The Democrats are favored to win control of the U.S. Congress, paving the way for domestic political gridlock. Ioana Constantin-Bercean explains the moves both the Democrats and Trump could make on foreign policy issues, from Ukraine to the Middle East. In her analysis, she discusses how the U.S. midterm elections could produce a Congress wholly hostile to Donald Trump, outlining three political scenarios and detailing how the battle will shift to foreign policy.
The US midterm elections enter their final stage on Thursday night. We could also see the first partial results then, but whatever the outcome—even if the Republicans lose control of Congress—Donald Trump has a major opportunity until January 3. That is the view of Ioana Constantin-Bercean, an expert on the Middle East and US policy. The Romanian researcher believes the incumbent US president will have a window of opportunity between November 4 and January 3, when the new Congress takes office. During that period, President Donald Trump will be best placed to push through decisions that would be difficult to block, from military strikes to major agreements. We will discuss this with a political analyst specializing in the United States.
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“The president is not on the ballot, but he has single-handedly turned the vote into a referendum on himself: at a rally in Durant, Oklahoma, in early October, he said, ‘If we don’t win, they will impeach me.’ The entire House of Representatives, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are up for election, and the outcome will determine his room for manoeuvre during his final two years in office. For those watching Hormuz, Kyiv or the eastern flank, what matters most is what happens between November 4 and January 3, when the new Congress takes office,” explains Ioana Constantin-Bercean.
Democrats lead the generic ballot by 8–9 points, the expert notes. She also points to the results of polls conducted in the final stretch. According to RealClearPolling, Democrats stand at 51.4%, compared with 43.2% for Republicans. Those numbers are stronger than in 2018, when Democrats gained 41 seats in the House.
“Trump’s approval rating stands at 37% (Silver Bulletin), the second-lowest ahead of any midterm election since 1946. Only Truman fared worse. On the cost of living, 25% approve and 70% disapprove. Nate Silver’s model gives Democrats roughly a 95% chance of winning the House and a 78% chance of taking the Senate. More than 50 million early votes have been cast—a record for a midterm election. The numbers point to Republicans losing the House, with the Senate leaning Democratic,” she notes.
Naturally, the question is how accurately these polls reflect the situation on the ground and how much we can rely on them. Ioana Constantin-Bercean believes that polls in the midterm elections tend to be close to the final results. In her view, the House race appears settled, while the Senate remains too close to call, with polling differences falling within the margin of error.
“In 2022, the polling average put Republicans ahead by 2.7 points, and the actual margin was 2.8 points (the talking heads who announce either a ‘red wave’ or a ‘blue wave’ in U.S. elections are presumably reading something else). Polls run into accuracy problems when Trump is on the ballot: in 2016, 2020 and 2024, they underestimated Republican support by 2–3 points because his voters are less likely to respond. He is not on the ballot on Tuesday. In the House, a three-point error would not change the outcome. In the Senate, it could, because Democrats need to pick up four seats in states such as Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Ohio or South Carolina (where, following Lindsey Graham’s death in July, his sister Darline is tied at 48 percent with pediatrician Annie Andrews). The House looks settled; the Senate hangs in the balance, within the margin of error.”
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