The wars in Iran and Ukraine are becoming increasingly intertwined as the weeks pass – to the point where some analysts argue that the two conflicts are beginning to merge, writes The Guardian in an analysis of the two major armed conflicts in the world today and the chances of them leading to a third world war, if this has not already happened.
It is difficult to predict how each war will affect the trajectory of the other, but it is already clear that their interconnection is drawing more countries into both conflict hotspots, extending an arc of instability that stretches across Europe and the Middle East.
From Ukraine’s perspective, the connection is nothing new. Russia began using Iranian-made Shahed drones in September 2022, seven months after Vladimir Putin’s large-scale invasion. What is new is that Moscow has returned the favor to Tehran, with a reported flow of information, targets, and drones to Iran following the US-Israel attack on February 28.
Volodimir Zelenski’s tour of the Middle East in recent weeks has consolidated another transregional link between the two conflicts, concluding agreements for the supply of drone technology and training, and anti-drone systems to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, while initiating security discussions along similar lines with Jordan.
The two wars also converge through the global energy markets. The initial impact of the attack on Iran, along with Tehran’s response to shut down maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, favored Russia through the sudden increase in oil and gas prices.
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