On the eve of the four-year commemoration of the Russian invasion, President Volodimir Zelenski stated that it is “only a matter of time” until Ukraine regains all its lost territory. However, for months the war has been extremely tight along a 1,200 km front, with progress slowed by the evolution of tactics and technology, according to an analysis by The Independent.
Diplomatic efforts reflect the stalemate on the battlefield. While the fourth round of direct negotiations between Kiev and Moscow is expected to take place this week, both sides remain firm: Russia continues to insist on maximalist territorial demands, while Ukraine maintains that it will not cede its eastern provinces to the aggressor nation.
Despite the general impasse, Ukraine has recorded symbolic victories in the south. In February, Kiev announced that it had recaptured 400 square kilometers of territory, including eight settlements, up from the 300 km² won last week and countering Russia’s reported gains of 389 km² in January.
Experts warn, however, that most of these gains are in the southeast, far from the strategically important eastern front. Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst and co-founder of the Finnish open-source information group Black Bird, estimated for The Independent that neither side appears ready to overcome the impasse in the most contested areas of the front.
How the front line has changed
“Today’s front line is no longer a coherent line, with clear control,” Kastehelmi explained. “Drones have made positions more diffuse, and troops are often intermingled in certain areas.”
Modern warfare has “demechanized” the battlefield previously marked by advances over vast areas, reducing the efficiency of tanks and forcing Russia to rely on the attrition tactics of the infantry. Drone strikes now account for up to 80% of Russian casualties, compared to less than 10% in 2022. By 2025, it is estimated that Russia has lost 80,000 soldiers to conquer just over 4,800 km² – 0.8% of Ukraine’s territory.
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