Russia might orchestrate challenges at the border of Poland to test the response capacity and unity of NATO. The information is attributed to security sources, quoted by the Polish press, British publications The Telegraph and The Guardian.
According to journalists, Washington authorities would have repeatedly sent warnings to Warsaw, reporting on potential threats. The ultimate goal of the Kremlin would be to weaken Western support for Ukraine and test the resolve of NATO member states.
Among the scenarios analyzed could be drone attacks on Polish critical infrastructure, simulated air strikes, or even border incidents involving Russian or Belarusian military, writes g4media.ro. The sources cited suggest that such actions could later be presented by Moscow as accidents or technical errors.
According to some officials and security experts, an extreme scenario could involve a limited incursion near the border, forcing NATO and Poland to choose between a military response and negotiations with Russia or Belarus.
In the view of the sources consulted by Onet, Moscow would consider any situation in which it could obtain political concessions, without triggering a direct military conflict with the North Atlantic Alliance, a success.
Multiple sources in the field of security and diplomacy, including representatives of NATO member states, have confirmed for the Polish publication that a challenge against Poland or the Baltic states is considered a real risk in current assessments. Moscow could launch such an operation either from the Russian region of Kaliningrad, or from the territory of Belarus, which is the Kremlin’s main ally in the region.
Analysts quoted by the British and Polish press specify, however, that Russia currently does not have the necessary resources for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, considering that a large part of its military capabilities are engaged in the war in Ukraine.
Polish officials have stated that the army and security authorities are prepared for such scenarios and have conducted corresponding exercises.