Europe will face a jet fuel (kerosene) deficit in the fourth quarter of 2026, even if it currently resorts to distant suppliers, such as South Korea, and even if Seoul increases its exports to the old continent to the highest level in the last four years, say analysts consulted by Reuters.
Since the beginning of the war in Iran, over six months ago, Europe has been importing increasingly larger quantities of kerosene from countries such as Nigeria, the United States, and Canada, after the conflict in the Middle East disrupted deliveries and interrupted approximately half of European imports.
Consultancy firm Energy Aspects estimates that Europe will register, in the fourth quarter, a kerosene supply deficit of 510,000 barrels per day. At the same time, while there will be a surplus in the United States, at a level of 18,000 barrels per day, there will also be a surplus of over 400,000 barrels per day in the Asia-Pacific region.
South Korea, Europe’s most recent source of kerosene supply
The data on trade flows analyzed by Reuters shows that, in September, South Korea became the most recent significant source of kerosene deliveries to Europe. European imports from this Asian country stand at 129,000 barrels per day, the highest level since October 2022, according to the analysis firm Kpler.
The data provided by LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) indicates similar volumes.
Considering that the kerosene supply deficit in Europe is expected to persist, the continent’s imports will continue, said James Noel-Beswick, director at the market analysis firm Sparta Commodities.
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