Russia finds itself in a stalemate on the battlefield in Ukraine and retaliates with massive attacks on Kiev. The growing fears in European capitals are that President Vladimir Putin will continue to try to change the situation by expanding the conflict into Europe, writes The Wall Street Journal.
In recent weeks, Moscow’s rhetoric towards the Baltic states has become downright bellicose. Russia has openly threatened to strike the “decision-making centers” in Latvia, accusing Riga of hosting Ukrainian drone operators – an accusation firmly rejected by Latvian authorities. Meanwhile, air raid alarms have sounded in Lithuania, forcing the government to retreat to bunkers after suspected drones, presumably Russian, penetrated the airspace from Belarus.
Furthermore, the Russian Ministry of Defense has published a list of addresses of companies from eight European countries that are allegedly collaborating with Ukraine in the production of drones, warning of “unpredictable consequences” and a “sharp escalation” if military aid to Kiev does not cease immediately.
Testing the NATO unit on the eastern flank
Although warnings about a widespread conflict are not new, recent developments have turned them into a first-order urgency. Officials from Europe’s national security structures warn that Russia might attempt to test the solidity of NATO’s Article 5 through targeted actions against:
1. Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania);
2. To the strategic Swedish and Danish islands in the Baltic Sea;
3. Allied territories in the Arctic region.
“The security environment in Europe has significantly deteriorated over the last 24 months. We see a greater inclination from Russia to take on major operational risks in its hybrid operations, even resorting to kinetic elements”, explained the Swedish Minister of Defense, Pål Jonson.
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