Revenues in Russia’s budget from the oil and gas sector have dramatically decreased. In December, they amounted to just 448 billion rubles, and for the entire year of 2025 — to 8.48 trillion rubles, according to the Ministry of Finance. This is the lowest level since 2020, the year of the pandemic, when revenues were 405 billion in August and 5.2 trillion for the whole year.
Then, the average price of Russian oil was 41.7 dollars per barrel. In the last months of 2025, similar levels were reached: 44.9 dollars in November and 39.2 dollars in December, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. Analysts from MMI call this budget deficit a “fiscal catastrophe”.
For 2026, the budget is calculated based on an average price of Urals barrel at 59 dollars. Thus, just in January, revenues from oil and gas will be 232 billion rubles below expectations, estimates the Ministry of Finance. To compensate for the difference, it will be necessary to sell currency and gold from the National Prosperity Fund — worth 192 billion rubles, or 12.8 billion per day, in the period from January 16 to February 5. The difference of 40 billion comes from the fact that in December the losses were slightly less than anticipated.
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