On the desk of the Kremlin leader, Vladimir Putin, the strategic options seem to have narrowed considerably, as the conflict in Ukraine continues to consume colossal resources. An assessment signed by journalist Viktor Shlinciak in the Ukrainian publication Focus indicates that Moscow is currently juggling four major scenarios, designed either to numerically overwhelm the Ukrainian defense, or to exploit the factor of fear at the international level.
The Four Books of the Kremlin: from “cannon fodder” to hybrid blackmail
Scenario 1
Masked Mobilization. The simplest course for the Kremlin remains to intensify recruitment. Without officially declaring a new wave of mobilization, Moscow relies on financially attractive contracts, pressures on migrants, recruitment of prisoners, and new obscure mechanisms of enlistment. The goal is to maintain the tactic of “human waves” on the front.
Scenario 2
Nuclear Blackmail. This refers to the use of tactical nuclear weapons as a tool of political pressure. The main goal is not necessarily their biological use, but rather to generate a state of panic among Kiev’s Western allies.
Scenario 3
Temporary cessation of hostilities. An attempt to enforce a suspension of fighting along the current front line to allow for the reorganization and resupply of Russian troops during winter, while maintaining pressure through long-range attacks on critical infrastructure.
Scenario 4
Opening a new regional front. In the absence of a major victory in Ukraine, Putin might seek a quick success elsewhere. Areas of interest include the Baltic states (through hybrid tactics, cyber attacks, and migration pressure), the Republic of Moldova, or Armenia.
Details, HERE