“History teaches us that wars begin when governments believe the price of aggression is low,” said former American President Ronald Reagan a few years before the collapse of the “evil empire,” the Soviet Union. Today, Europe faces a similar external threat from Russia, according to an analysis by The Economist, which calculated the cost that European countries will have to pay to prevent Moscow from destroying Ukraine and the unity of the NATO alliance.
The Economist estimated that Ukraine will need about 389 billion dollars in financial and military aid over the next four years in order to defend itself, keep its economy afloat, and inflict enough losses on Russia that Vladimir Putin will understand he cannot win a protracted war.
The difference from the scenario in the ’80s, when the United States dramatically increased its defense budget to counter the Soviet Union, is that now Europe will have to bear almost all these expenses without the help of America, which, under the leadership of Donald Trump, is distancing itself from an alliance that has maintained peace in Europe for 70 years.
The amount that Ukraine will need in the period 2026-2029 is approximately twice as large as the 206 billion dollars that Europe has provided to Kiev since the war began in 2022. During the same period, America has delivered weapons and financial aid worth 133 billion dollars. In other words, the cost of supporting Ukraine without America for the other NATO members will have to increase from 0.2% of GDP to 0.4%.
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