New warnings from intelligence services in Latvia, Poland, and other NATO member states suggest that Russia might be preparing provocative actions against the Baltic countries or Poland. According to analysts, a potential test of the Alliance would not necessarily begin with a military invasion, but with a combination of sabotage, cyber attacks, drone incidents, disinformation campaigns, and other actions difficult to directly attribute to Moscow.
Timo Hellenberg, CEO of Hellenberg International, argues in Kyiv Post that Russia could try to exploit the internal vulnerabilities of NATO states to create confusion and delays in the decision-making process, before the Alliance determines whether it is an attack that justifies activating collective defense mechanisms.
Warnings from the intelligence services
At the end of June 2026, the Latvian intelligence services announced that they had identified indications of possible Russian military challenges against the Baltic states or Poland.
According to the analysis, similar assessments have also been conveyed by other intelligence services within NATO.
The Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, subsequently stated that the security situation in the region is “extremely unstable” and that various forms of escalation are possible in the upcoming period.
The Polish authorities have also warned that Russian services are attempting to exploit tensions between Poles and Ukrainian refugees, and are showing interest in critical infrastructure, military objectives, and organizations involved in supporting Ukraine.
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