A former American official directly involved in the Iranian case argues that the war initiated by the United States against Iran risks producing effects contrary to those initially pursued, offering Tehran an unexpected strategic advantage.
Nate Swanson, former director for Iran within the US National Security Council and a member of the negotiating team in 2025, writes in Foreign Affairs that, despite initial military successes, Washington failed to achieve a clear long-term result.
The author recalls that, almost two decades ago, when he was working at the State Department, he was told that the real power in Iran does not belong to the president, but to the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei — and change could come with his disappearance.
That change came only recently, after Khamenei was killed as a result of coordinated actions by the US and Israel, ending a 36-year leadership.
His legacy is a controversial one. Iran’s economy has significantly deteriorated during this period, the national currency has almost completely lost its value, and the country, although rich in resources, frequently faces energy and water shortages. The accelerated increase in food prices has heightened the dissatisfaction of the population.
According to the analysis, a large part of these difficulties are related to the regime’s foreign policy, oriented against American interests. Faced with internal protests, the authorities have repeatedly resorted to repression, including at the beginning of this year, when thousands of civilians were killed.
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