Russia is reportedly preparing a large-scale attack campaign on Kiev’s energy infrastructure in the coming weeks, with the aim of causing maximum damage before Ukraine’s Independence Day on August 24, according to the most recent assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The Institute for the Study of War cites the Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communications, which reported, based on information from American services, that Russia is preparing for a major campaign against the energy infrastructure of the Ukrainian capital. According to the assessment, the Kremlin could resort to its strategic reserve of ballistic missiles to cause as much damage as possible by August 24, according to ISW.
Russia might start the winter campaign earlier
ISW analysts believe that Russia could outpace the traditional campaign against the Ukrainian energy system this year. In the fall of 2025, intensive attacks against the energy infrastructure began in September, but Moscow could start the 2026-2027 campaign as early as August.
The reason would be the current vulnerability of Ukrainian air defense. President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on August 5 that Ukraine is receiving almost three times fewer ballistic missile interceptors than at the beginning of the year 2026.
Russia has already taken advantage of the lack of interceptors: even attacks with a relatively small number of ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles have managed to cause significant damage. Under these circumstances, ballistic missile attacks on energy facilities in Kiev could have “significant effects”.
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