Russian opposition figure Garry Kasparov has spoken about the “polar bear effect”, which could lead to the collapse of President Vladimir Putin’s regime. He said that Russians can tolerate rights abuses for a long time, but they can suddenly erupt and overthrow the regime, referring to history.
Such unpredictable reactions are called the “polar bear effect”, which occurs unexpectedly. Kasparov explained this concept in an interview given to Channel 24 on YouTube.
“I would not overstate the importance of these protests in Russia. There is not yet such a potential for protest; it is not felt, but there is this ‘polar bear effect’.
The polar bear is an animal that attacks suddenly, without any warning. Why are they not in circuses? Precisely because it is impossible to anticipate their aggression. I have heard from professional trainers that they are the only animals that attack suddenly”, he said, according to Dialog.ua.
Kasparov then explained how the situation in Russia could evolve: “The history of Russia shows that the patience of the population is like a ‘polar bear’. Everything seemed fine, and then, in March 1917, the empire simply disappeared.”
“I would not say that there is now the same potential for protest as then, but the explosion could be sudden. Of course, Telegram and other social networks will accumulate tension, but it will not be a constant increase. It can be a spontaneous reaction to something that is not even visible yet, but there is a feeling that something is boiling, like in a volcano”, he explained.
In October 2025, several young people took to the streets in Saint Petersburg, singing anti-war songs, in a rare act of defiance against Putin’s regime.
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