The official data on inflation in Russia — 5.6% for the year 2025 — is in stark contradiction with the perception of the population. According to a survey conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation (ФОМ), the inflation felt by citizens was 14.5%, almost three times higher than that reported by the authorities.
In the first weeks of 2026, official inflation accelerated due to an increase in VAT and some tariffs, reaching 6.3% annually on January 12 and 6.5% on January 19, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. It was precisely during this period (January 12-21) that the FOM survey was conducted.
Although Russians perceive a slight slowdown in inflation compared to the beginning of the previous year, the decrease is much more modest than that announced by Rosstat. The population’s inflationary expectations are almost identical to those of a year ago: 13.7% versus 14%. At the end of 2024, the perceived inflation had reached a local peak of over 10%.
In the first quarter of the previous year, the observed inflation was between 16 and 16.5%, 1.5-2 percentage points above the current level. Nevertheless, the authorities claim that inflation has been reduced by almost 4 percentage points.
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