The confrontation between Russia and the West cannot continue indefinitely, and the country is facing several future scenarios, including the disintegration of the state or its transformation into a “besieged fortress”, believes Russian billionaire Andrei Melnichenko.
The businessman, who ranks eighth in the list of the richest Russians, with an estimated fortune of 20 billion dollars, described in an article for The Economist five possible directions for Russia: the disintegration of the state, isolation and militarization following the North Korean model, returning to the periphery of the Western system, dependence on China, or the construction of a sovereign Russia.
Melnicenko believes that one of the most dangerous scenarios is the triggering of an internal conflict and the disintegration of the country. In his opinion, various groups could end up fighting for resources, influence, and control over the territories of a nuclear power.
Another serious scenario is the transformation of Russia into a closed and heavily militarized state, following the model of North Korea. This would imply isolation, repression, limiting development prospects, and a state of permanent mobilization.
The billionaire also warns that the risk of the war in Ukraine spreading to other countries is increasing, and draws attention to the danger of further escalation, including the use of nuclear weapons.
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