A poll conducted at the end of October indicates a historic shift in the Hungarian political scene: the Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, is ahead of Fidesz with 48% to 37%. However, even if Viktor Orbán were to lose the parliamentary elections in 2025, the system he has built over the last 15 years seems designed to outlive him.
The Hungarian Prime Minister’s visit to Washington at the beginning of November provided him with exactly the support he needed. Orbán secured photo opportunities with Donald Trump and a one-year exemption from American sanctions on Russian energy imports — a decision that Budapest now presents as a “victory of reason”.
An ally saved by Trump
The sanctions targeted Russian energy companies Rosneft and Lukoil, effective from November 21, and threatened secondary penalties for states that continued to purchase crude oil from Russia. Without this exemption, Hungarian refineries, predominantly supplied by the Soviet “Friendship” and TurkStream pipelines, would have been seriously affected.
Orbán argued in discussions with Washington that stopping these deliveries would paralyze Hungary’s economy, which is 86% dependent on Russian oil and 74% on Russian gas. Trump agreed, stating that the measure is “common sense” for a landlocked country.
However, the concession came at a price. In exchange for the exemption, Budapest committed to purchasing approximately $600 million in American liquefied gas and $1.5 billion in nuclear fuel for the Paks power plant, in addition to promises regarding technological cooperation.
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