A renowned economist, specializing in the Eastern European space, analyzes the indicators that are keeping Russia afloat from a financial perspective. Economist Anders Åslund, a former member of the North Atlantic Council, is considered a top expert in the transition of centrally planned economies to market economies.
The Swedish expert has previously advised both the Russian and Ukrainian governments. A few days ago, he conducted an analysis on the deadlock that has occurred in the US over military aid for Ukraine.
Åslund subsequently wrote “a guide” of 18 points on how to “strangle Russia’s economy”:
“1. Russia relies on commodity exports. 90% of its exports are commodities and 2/3 used to be made up of oil and gas.
2. Commodities require cheap transport – either by sea or through pipelines.
3. Russia has already lost almost all of its 150 billion cubic meters of gas exported to Europe, worth $60-70 billion per year. The dominant gas pipelines go to Europe, and Russia also produces a small amount of LNG (liquefied natural gas). Domestic gas sales remain heavily subsidized, which could lead to Gazprom going bankrupt.
4. Oil traditionally accounted for more than half of Russia’s total exports and probably still does. The West and Ukraine should focus on minimizing Russia’s oil export revenues.
6. The US government has identified international actors violating sanctions and has sanctioned many of them. This surveillance is becoming more and more efficient.
7. 90% of Russia’s oil exports are delivered through two seas – the shallow Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. Most of the goods are shipped by a fleet of very old ships, below current standards, with weak or no insurance. This should not be allowed in these environmentally sensitive waters.
8. The Baltic Sea is surrounded by NATO members who care about the environment. They must ban Russia’s dangerous ghost tankers.
9. This could be done at two choke points – Öresund (in Sweden) – a narrow and shallow location, or the Gulf of Finland (Finland and Estonia).
Read more HERE.”
