A research center close to the Russian authorities, The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASTF), has found that “the banking crisis, previously predicted by the early warning system, is now confirmed according to formal criteria”, and shortly before there was already recorded a “non-performing loan crisis”.
The center’s leading indicator also signals high risks of “massive depositor withdrawals”. For now, this phenomenon is not manifesting due to the latent nature of the crisis, notes CMASTF, but “in case of intensification of crisis processes, these can surface”.
By systemic banking crisis, the center understands a situation where at least one of the following conditions is met:
– the proportion of problematic assets in the banking system exceeds 10%;
– customers withdraw from accounts and deposits a significant part of the funds;
– to limit the consequences, a reorganization or forced nationalization of a significant part of the banks (over 10%) or a large-scale recapitalization, over 2% of GDP, takes place.
Both crises are “moderate in scale”, analysts try to reassure: problematic assets represent just over 10% of the total assets and the banks’ loan portfolio. However, on certain segments “the degree of impact” is higher. For example, in the case of loans granted to small and medium-sized enterprises, the proportion of problematic loans reaches, on average, 19%, indicates CMASTF.
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