Severe restrictions at the pump, informational censorship, and a civilian infrastructure left in ruins in favor of the military budget: this is the current picture of Russia under the rain of Ukrainian drones targeting the Kremlin’s refineries. In an interview given to the newspaper “Adevărul“, the founder of Romania Energy Center, Eugenia Gusilov, analyzes the effects of Kiev’s campaign and shows why, although the dissatisfaction of the population will not topple the regime, the Russian economy is rapidly heading towards an implosion.
Eugenia Gusilov estimates that the upcoming winter will be particularly difficult for Russians, against the backdrop of Ukrainians targeting the energy infrastructure, the long-standing neglect of investments in the maintenance of civil infrastructure, and the redirection of significant state funds towards the military budget.
Regarding the possibility of an energy collapse, the expert emphasizes the uncertainty generated by the lack of transparent statistical data, information censorship, and the inability to accurately assess the resilience of Russian society.
She also appreciates that the chances of public dissatisfaction leading to political change are slim, considering the lack of mobilization and the systematic withdrawal of civic action tools.
The Truth: We see that the Russians are now affected by the energy crisis they chose to intensify in Europe. What does the life of ordinary Russians look like since Ukraine began targeting the Kremlin’s energy infrastructure?
Eugenia Gusilov: Ukraine’s hope is to generate a dissatisfaction at the level of the entire Russian society, which would affect the economy and the daily life of the citizens, so that a change could occur within Russia. However, I believe that the chances of this happening are extremely low, because the Russian population seems to be an amorphous mass, without political or military power and, in my opinion, incapable of acting to remove the current leadership. People fail to mobilize because, over the years, all the tools that would have allowed them to constitute a capable force to propose a change or a real alternative have been systematically withdrawn.
Personally, I don’t believe that change can come from Russian citizens, as they have been infantilized and don’t realize why Ukraine is launching drones at them, believing they are not at fault, even though Putin has been acting on behalf of the Russian people for four years. As for the oil tankers transporting Kazakh oil, I believe they were rather unintended collateral victims, that is, a secondary consequence of war actions.
We can already observe that the Russians are feeling the consequences of the war, and this is visible since the end of June, when they were imposed severe restrictions on fuel purchases, such as limits of 20 or 50 liters, and to prevent repeated refueling in the same day, their registration number was recorded, and now the situation has degenerated into a real disaster. In Romania, the press only reflects this reality to a very small extent, which is why we are not fully aware of its severity, but there, in Russia, everyday life has become extremely difficult, and getting gasoline is considered a special merit.
People are hunting for fuel, some crossing the border into Kazakhstan to refuel and fill up canisters, to the extent that the authorities in Kazakhstan have had to intervene and ban the filling of canisters so as not to run out of gasoline at their own stations. Thus, ordinary people are forced to buy gasoline and store it on balconies, and the smell of fuel is felt through the apartment blocks, a reality that we, in Romania, can hardly imagine. Russia has returned to the ’90s, marked by shortages and widespread deprivation, and this situation is the direct result of a destructive policy and an absolutely useless war, which brings no benefit and will not lead to any positive outcome.
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