As Russian troops gradually advance in the Donbas region, the Ukrainian army is preparing for a tough resistance in the face of a new attrition campaign, according to estimates by military experts and intelligence officials.
In a village in eastern Ukraine, just thirty minutes away from the front lines, Ukrainian drone commanders coordinate defense operations. At 24 and, respectively, 26 years old, young officers like those known by the codenames “Fleșka” and “Sașa” lead mixed units of infantry and drone operators, managing the defense of the last bastions in the region.
The strategic situation in Donbas
The Donbas region encompasses the territories of Lugansk and Donetsk. While Russian forces have taken control of most of Lugansk, Ukraine currently controls less than a fifth of the Donetsk region, an area estimated at about 5,000 square kilometers.
According to assessments by representatives of European intelligence services, Russian troops could reach the outskirts of the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk by the beginning of 2027. These two localities represent the core of the last major Ukrainian defensive belt in the region.
However, the human cost of such an offensive remains extremely high. Military analysts emphasize that the pace of the Russian advance is currently extremely slow, a pace that could prolong the battles for total control of the Donetsk region until the beginning of the next decade, in the absence of major resource changes or a new large-scale mobilization.
Changes on the front line
The tactical situation remains tense in several sectors. Ukrainian forces are facing a local superiority of Russia in terms of FPV type drones and the intensive use of guided bombs, which continue to affect infrastructure and defensive positions.
At the same time, the logistics and supply capacity of the defenders in Kramatorsk and Sloviansk is considered by experts to be the decisive factor in maintaining defensive lines. Colonel Markus Reisner, from the Austrian Armed Forces, emphasizes that maintaining supply routes remains vital for the Ukrainian troops to continue resistance.
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