The American President Donald Trump has blamed the Ukraine attacks on Russian refineries for reducing global diesel exports and for rising prices, saying that Volodimir Zelenski “wants to create problems for the entire world”.
“He would do well to damn stop,” said Trump, before suggesting that Ukraine should “find a new leader who can make a deal.”
Others, however, say that the USA-Israel war with Iran had an even greater impact, which reduced refined fuel exports from the Gulf area.
After Trump announced a controversial deal for diesel imports from Russia, promising “lower prices for Americans,” BBC Verify examined what has affected diesel supply in recent months and years.
The data shows that both conflicts have seriously reduced global diesel exports, but the drop in deliveries from the Gulf states, due to the war with Iran, was larger.
What happened to the price of diesel in the world
The increase in diesel prices directly affects drivers, but the problem is broader. Fuel is used by trucks, vans, and ships, that is, exactly the means of transport on which global supply chains rely. Any increase in transportation costs can ultimately end up in the prices paid by consumers.
In the United States, the average price of diesel was 6.20 dollars per gallon on October 5th, very close to the record of 6.50 dollars registered on September 21st, according to the most recent data from the American Energy Information Administration.
Before the war with Iran, a gallon of diesel cost approximately 3.50 dollars in the USA.
And in the United Kingdom, prices are close to historical highs. On October 5, a liter of diesel cost on average 1.99 pounds sterling.
In 2025, approximately 6.8 million barrels of diesel per day were exported to the global market, according to the maritime data company Kpler. Exports account for about a quarter of the world’s diesel consumption, the rest being covered by the internal production of the states.
In September 2026, global exports had fallen to 5.8 million barrels per day, about one million barrels less. Some countries, especially the United States, increased their exports in the last year, but overall the quantity available on the global market decreased. Analysts say that this very reduction has pushed prices up.
How much has the offer from Russia decreased?
In 2025, Russia was exporting approximately 810,000 barrels of diesel per day. By September 2026, the volume had dropped to only about 140,000 barrels per day. This represents a decrease of approximately 670,000 barrels per day.
Jonathan Leader Maynard, from King’s College London, says that “many analysts” attribute the reduction of Russian oil product exports, including diesel, primarily to Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries, and not to international sanctions.
How much has been lost from the exports of the Middle East
The Middle East is not just a major exporter of crude oil, but also an important center for the production of diesel.
In 2025, the Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman – exported approximately 1.4 million barrels of diesel per day.
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