The US administration is banking on the revival of economic ties with Russia as a tool to prevent a new conflict. However, analysts warn that history shows the limits of this strategy, and promises of prosperity can be deceptive, writes Foreign Policy.
The team of American President Donald Trump sees the rebuilding of trade relations between Washington and Moscow as a central element of a possible peace agreement regarding Ukraine. The idea is that common economic interests could serve as a guarantee against a new war. Specialists with experience in the Russian economy, however, say that this approach ignores essential lessons from the past.
Betting on business as a guarantee of peace
Steve Witkoff, a real estate developer, close to Donald Trump and the main American emissary in the dialogue with Russia on the war in Ukraine, has presented trade agreements with Moscow as a shield against future conflicts. In his opinion, mutual prosperity would automatically reduce the risk of confrontations.
The Trump administration has shown open enthusiasm for potential economic gains. “Russia has huge resources and vast areas of land,” Witkoff said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. Donald Trump himself stated last year that he was discussing “major economic development deals” between the two countries.
Lessons ignored from the past
For those who worked in Russia in the 1990s and 2000s, this optimism seems already familiar. “We are once again in the situation of believing that business can transform political relations,” says Charles Hecker, a geopolitical risk consultant and former director of the Control Risks office in Moscow. “And the answer is: no, it can’t.”
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, direct American investments in Russia significantly increased, from 1.7 billion dollars in 1999 to over 20 billion in 2009. The European Union went even further: in 2021, a year before the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia was among the top five trading partners of the community bloc.
Details, HERE