The Institute for the Study of War suggests that a second Russian Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile likely suffered a malfunction and crashed in the occupied Donetsk region during Russia’s attack on Ukraine on May 23-24. If confirmed, this would mean that one in four Oreshnik missiles used by Russia during the war has failed.
Over the weekend, Moscow launched one of the most devastating and costly combined attacks on Ukraine. Beyond the massive destruction in the Kiev region, the attention of international analysts is focused on a possible catastrophic technical error of Vladimir Putin’s “wonder weapon”: an Oreshnik ballistic missile is said to have crashed in the occupied territory, striking the positions of the Russian army itself.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has confirmed, based on OSINT (open source intelligence) analyses, that Russia has in fact launched two Oreshnik medium-range missiles on the night of May 23 to 24, from the Kapustin Yar base in the Astrakhan region.
While the first rocket hit the city of Bila Tserkva (located 80 kilometers south of Kiev), the second reportedly suffered a major technical malfunction shortly after launch. The analyzed images show six submunitions crashing in the Avdiivka or Yasynuvata area, in the suburbs of Donetsk, approximately 40 kilometers from the front line. If this information is confirmed, the statistics are devastating for the Kremlin’s military propaganda: one in four Oreshnik rockets used so far in this war has malfunctioned.
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