Russia’s demand for the withdrawal of allied military forces from countries that joined NATO after 1997 could be more than a security demand: it may be a means of extracting concessions over Ukraine. General Virgil Bălăceanu examines the Kremlin’s strategy for “Adevărul” and explains why Putin continues to make demands he knows the West will not accept in full.
Ahead of negotiations on a peace agreement in Ukraine, Russia has reportedly revived an old tactic and put forward another sweeping demand: that NATO withdraw its military infrastructure to its pre-1997 positions—before the successive waves of eastward expansion. At least, that is what Britain’s The Telegraph reports, in a story picked up by the Romanian press.
Raising the demand for NATO to withdraw to its 1997 positions is a classic Kremlin tactic for raising the stakes, and it is reportedly being deployed again, this time ahead of peace talks in Abu Dhabi, shifting the focus from Ukrainian territory to Europe’s entire security architecture. Russia has, in fact, made the same demand on several previous occasions, including in 2021, before launching its invasion of Ukraine. At the time, the Kremlin presented these demands as an ultimatum to NATO and the United States, but negotiations never took place.
Amid a flurry of diplomatic activity surrounding a new round of talks on the war in Ukraine planned for Abu Dhabi, the Kremlin is seeking to push the stakes far beyond its neighbour’s borders. True to form, behind the scenes of the negotiations, Russia is making maximalist demands in the hope of securing sweeping concessions that would reshape the entire security architecture of Central and Eastern Europe.
Moscow’s radical demands
Retired Lieutenant General Virgil Bălăceanu, Romania’s former representative to NATO headquarters in Brussels and former commander of the South-Eastern Europe Multinational Brigade, offers his analysis of the situation for “Adevărul”. He points out that Russia is essentially demanding the withdrawal of Allied troops and the removal of Allied infrastructure and bases from countries that joined the Alliance after 1997.
Analyzing this pressure strategy, the general explains that Moscow’s real aim is to secure major concessions in Ukraine and sow as much discord as possible among the allies, paving the way for Russia to expand its influence in Europe.
“Russia would like to see the withdrawal of battlegroups and NATO commands from all the countries that joined the North Atlantic Alliance after 1997. That means 10 countries, including Romania. So, ultimately, NATO has a presence of one kind or another in these countries, including Albania and Montenegro. This would mean NATO would no longer have a military presence in Finland, even though its presence there is not yet substantial, or in Poland, the Baltic states, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Albania or Montenegro,” says General Bălăceanu.
Still, such demands are better understood as classic bargaining tactics. General Virgil Bălăceanu explains that the Kremlin is, in fact, putting maximalist demands on the table to impose a starting point for negotiations, allowing it to later make concessions in exchange for securing other territorial or military objectives in Ukraine.
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