The anti-regime protests in Iran have entered their third week, and the theocratic leadership of the Islamic Republic is trying to suppress them dangerously, the known toll from local sources being over 500 dead and over 10,000 people arrested.
In this context, the US president announced that he was contacted by leaders from Tehran who would like to negotiate, faced with the threat of the American administration that it will intervene in support of the protesters.
Ioana Constantin-Bercean, Middle East expert, spoke on Antena 3 CNN about how a US intervention in Iran would unfold and what would be the regional and global consequences.
Sabrina Preda: “Can we see the emergence of a civil war, can we see a removal of the current regime by force or foreign interference?”
Ioana Constantin Bercean: “Of course there are several scenarios on the table and, unfortunately, the information coming from inside Iran is very scarce (…) because the internet has been blocked. Let’s focus a bit on the geopolitical or geostrategic part of the Middle East.
Indeed, we see that massing of forces, of bombers, of all kinds of American military and logistical capabilities exactly in that region of the Pacific Ocean, where they were amassed last year, before President Trump made the decision to briefly and targetedly bomb those sites where Iran is presumed to develop military nuclear capabilities. So the model is the same.
Expert: If Trump attacks Iran’s nuclear sites again, he falls into his own trap
And then of course we can assume that, at some point, Donald Trump will make such a decision.
However, things are a bit more complex than that, because we need to think about what a new American attack on Iran would mean. What will be the targets this time? Because, if Donald Trump were to come now and say that he will attack those nuclear sites again, he would somewhat fall into his own trap.
Because then, in June 2025, he said that those sites had been destroyed. So, this time the targets should be certain military objectives. Or maybe (…) he will aim for the ballistic missile sites.
Donald Trump says he will intervene if the regime in Tehran will cross that red line, namely, it will be violent or will react violently against the protesters. However, this is not news. In Iran there have been protests since 1980, so immediately after the Iranian revolution of the years ’78 – ’79.
Expert: We should be naive to believe that Trump cares about human rights in Iran
And we should be a bit naive, from an analytical point of view, to believe that Donald Trump cares about human rights
This I think has just been disproved not (just) once, after we all saw that intervention in Venezuela and the American president clearly said that the main interest there was to obtain income from oil.
Details, HERE