Iran has transferred long-range missiles to its proxy forces in Iraq for the first time, increasing the military footprint of the regime in the region, even as President Trump threatens to hold Tehran accountable for its militia actions, according to The Times.
Tehran has increased its presence in the region by providing a new shipment of weapons to powerful Shiite militias in Iraq, dispelling hopes that Iran will withdraw its support as it prepares to enter negotiations with the United States regarding its nuclear and missile program. The weapons were transferred last week, according to regional services involved in monitoring the 1,500-kilometer border between the countries. This is the first time that long-range surface-to-surface missiles are in the possession of a pro-Iranian militia in Iraq. Sources said the delivery was arranged by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Air Force.
Iran is set to head into its first official negotiations regarding its nuclear program with the United States since President Trump withdrew from the Obama nuclear deal in 2018. Iran has been widely viewed as significantly weakened in recent years, losing its air defense around nuclear facilities after a confrontation with Israel in October and with the collapse of its allies – Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. During Tuesday’s meeting with Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office, Trump called on Tehran to agree on a deal during the negotiations, which were supposed to take place in Oman. “If the discussions are not successful, I really think it will be a very bad day for Iran,” he said. However, sources said that two other types of missiles, the Quds 351 cruise missiles and the Jamal 69 ballistic missiles, were smuggled into Iraq last week.
They have a much smaller range than the new surface-to-surface missiles, which can be positioned to target Europe. “Iran recently transferred missiles to Shiite militias in Iraq, including new models with longer ranges that have not previously been given to these militias. It is a desperate move by the Iranians, who are risking the stability of Iraq,” said a source from the region. The rebel group Houthis in Yemen and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq are seen as the last forces fighting for the Tehran regime. The US has targeted key Houthi targets in recent weeks, killing a senior intelligence official, Abdul Nasser al-Kamali, on Tuesday. Iraq has its own separatist armed groups allied with Iran, which can be traced back to the reign of Saddam Hussein and have a staunch anti-American stance, especially after the US invasion in 2003. In January last year, the militia group Kataib Hezbollah killed three American soldiers in Jordan.
The US responded with a drone strike that killed its leader, Abu Baqir al-Saadi, prompting the group to suspend its attacks. The development goes against reports this week from Iraqi officials and senior commanders who said that the pro-Iranian militia in Iraq is “ready to disarm” to avoid potential conflict with America. A senior Shiite politician close to the Iraqi government told Reuters that the groups intend to comply with the US calls to disarm to avoid being targeted. Analysts say Iran is “fighting” to regain its position in the Middle East, forcing its remaining proxies to try to cover their bets. “Some militia leaders have held discussions with the Iraqi government about demilitarizing their fight and joining the political process. I think some proxies are losing confidence in Iran to support them in the long run,” explained William Alberque, a specialist at the Stimson Center. On the other hand, he added that it makes sense for Iran to “ramp up support for militias in an attempt to persuade them to break off talks and continue fighting.”
“Iran has no reason to give up its proxy tools because it continues to reap benefits, both in terms of destabilization, but also because it creates opportunities for them through ungoverned spaces – including organized crime and other smuggling avenues.”