The Kremlin’s inability to ensure the safety of its own latest generation aircraft represents a humiliation for the Russian leadership, argues Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon in a commentary for The Telegraph, suggesting that Vladimir Putin’s “Waterloo” may be approaching.
Last week, one of the few and precious Russian fifth-generation fighter jets, a Su-57, crashed near Moscow. The circumstances of the accident were unusual enough to disturb the Russian military leadership. And if the Kremlin can no longer guarantee the safety of even its own capital, nor the protection of its most advanced aircraft, then Putin’s Waterloo might be approaching, argues the author.
Even Russian military bloggers, usually loyal to the regime, suggest that the fighter jet could have been shot down by its own Russian anti-aircraft defense — possibly even by systems specifically deployed for the protection of the Kremlin elite.
Even more striking are the claims coming from Ukrainian sources, according to which the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) would have penetrated the integrated air defense network of Russia and would have destroyed one of the most modern combat aircraft through a Russian ground-to-air missile. If the information is confirmed, it would be one of the boldest information strikes in this war.
Almost simultaneously, an Iranian oil tanker, allegedly carrying Russian ammunition destined for Tehran, is said to have sunk in the Caspian Sea — a cargo intended to bolster Iran’s operations against American troops in the Middle East.
Regardless of whether every detail will be fully confirmed, the two episodes, taken together, could represent a decisive moment of the war, notes Bretton-Gordon.
Parallel with Napoleon
In this context, the author recounts the story of Major George Scovell, a British army officer during the Peninsular War, a remarkable linguist and mathematician, who managed to decipher Napoleon’s “Great Cipher”. Scovell is considered a spiritual precursor of the decoders at Bletchley Park, whose ingenuity contributed to the victory in World War II. His work allowed the supreme commander of the British and allied forces, Wellington, to read many of Napoleon’s operational orders before they reached the French commanders — an information advantage that proved decisive in the Peninsula and ultimately contributed to Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo in 1815.
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