Analysis of Dionis Cenușa
The Russian military mobilization on the border with Ukraine, combined with the Russian-Belarusian military exercises and hundreds of violations of the ceasefire by the administrations of the Ukrainian separatist territories (OSCE, February 2022), keep Kiev on high alert. Ukraine’s concerns are valid even after Russian leader Vladimir Putin signed documents recognizing the two breakaway Ukrainian regions in Lugansk and Donetsk (RBC, February 2022). On the political, diplomatic, military and financial front, the West is on Ukraine’s side. At the same time, efforts are under way to bring Russia to the negotiating table to avoid a conventional Russo-Ukrainian war. Moscow’s refusal to accept peaceful solutions to the crisis indicates intentions strictly hostile to its neighbor.
Of the set of scenarios that Russia has intended to implement in Ukraine, some stood out. First, the Russian side chose to reactivate the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, with the aim of “federalizing” Ukraine. Putin wanted to use the intervention of France and Germany to put pressure on Kyiv. Since this scenario failed, Russia decided to use the “Kosovo precedent” to justify recognizing the independence of the breakaway regions. There was already a favorable vote in the State Duma, and Russian propaganda was pedaling intensely with the totally false narrative of a so-called “genocide” (Kremlin, February 2022), which was allegedly committed against Russian-speakers in the separatist regions (where more than 700,000 people have already acquired Russian citizenship). Based on this scenario and based on the requests of the members of the Russian National Security Council, headed by Vladimir Putin (Kremlin.ru, February 2022), the latter chose to recognize the independence of the breakaway regions.
Other widely discussed scenarios were abandoned, such as the Novorossia project, with the goal to link Donbas, Crimea and the Transnistrian region (Moldova) with Russian territory. Such a scenario would have been extremely costly for Russia. Even the Kosovo precedent could be sacrificed by Russia if NATO were to close the door on Ukraine, accepting the “finlandization” scenario. In any scenario, in addition to blocking NATO enlargement, Moscow wants the “federalization” of Ukraine, with levers of influence over Kyiv through the separatist regimes in Donbass.
Recognition of the independence of the separatist regions or the “Kosovo scenario”, which becomes the main stage with which the Kremlin operates. This would allow Russia to complicate Ukraine’s accession to NATO in the event of materialisation. However, the case of Ukraine will be much more difficult to promote among NATO states to obtain unanimity, even if Kyiv manages to meet the conditions for accession. Russia can use the same scenario to create a new context for negotiations between Ukraine and breakaway regions, replacing the Minsk Agreements. Consequently, the main condition for the maintenance of the EU sanctions, currently linked to the implementation of the Agreements by Moscow, would disappear.
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In lieu of conclusions…
Ukraine’s demands must be considered as a matter of urgency. To be sure, sanctioning Russia is a necessity dictated by its actions. The gradual application of sanctions must begin when there is conclusive evidence. Although the Western sanctions do not seem to scare Russia, their application has a symbolic meaning for the Ukrainian side. At the same time, the sanctions will be extended to the “Kosovo scenario”, which would penalize Russian authorities and companies involved in the recognition of breakaway regimes. However, this scenario violates (and at the same time liquidates) the Minsk Agreements, international treaties and perpetuates the series of severe precedents of border changes by force in Europe. Affordable financial resources must also be found for Ukraine for the coming months, at least while the risk of invasion persists and the Russian crisis takes new forms. An international donor conference dedicated to Ukraine would be a good step in that direction. Last but not least, NATO and the EU can develop Euro-Atlantic guarantees for Ukraine, which will be inspired by the Turkish-Azerbaijani agreements.
The escalation of the Russian crisis can only be averted if Western capitals listen to Kyiv’s demands. The collective West has the tools to sanction Russia both preemptively and post-factum, providing the necessary financial assistance and a set of security guarantees to Ukraine. The Western sanctions policy must urgently be extended to the process of recognizing the independence of breakaway regions. The solution to the Russian crisis must not be at Ukraine’s expense, but through Ukraine’s cooperation with the West.
Source: https://www.ipn.md