In recent days, Russian influence agents and propagandists have been escalating accusations against the leadership of the Republic of Moldova. They claim that President Maia Sandu, who is portrayed as “emotionally unstable,” has called for the preparation of a military plan to take control of the Transnistrian region and “remove” Russian peacekeeping troops from the region. On the other hand, the European Union is accused of passivity or tacit support for the alleged escalation of the situation, suggesting that it would not oppose new crises in Russia’s sphere of interest. The authorities have denied the information.
The narratives about Maia Sandu’s alleged military plans in the Transnistrian region first appeared in Russian intelligence “reports”. These narratives suggest that the President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu, is preparing a military operation in the Transnistrian region, claiming that she ordered the seizure of the MGRES on the left bank of the Dniester, which is officially owned by Russia’s “Inter RAO”. The narratives developed with claims that Sandu refused to discuss gas supply issues with Ukraine after the expiration of the Russian-Ukrainian transit agreement and that if Moscow did not find a way to deliver gas to Chisinau, Moldova would “revenge” on Transnistria. It was also reported that the Moldovan authorities had ordered the initiation of criminal cases against Transnistrian leaders for “separatism”. The narratives also suggested that, although EU leaders would not mind a new crisis in Russia’s area of interest, the bloc would not be prepared for such a scenario.
From the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service to dozens of Telegram channels
Initially, the Russian Tass Agency announced on Monday, citing a statement from the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation (SVR), that the EU would not know how to calm the “emotionally unstable” president of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu. They added that Sandu is preparing military intervention in the Transnistrian region and that no one can guarantee that she will not start a war. The Tass post has gathered almost 62 thousand views on Telegram and has been taken over by a number of pro-Russian Telegram channels, including Moldavia Segodnea.
The Russian news agency RT also shared the information, with the post garnering over 222,000 views. RIA Novosti also picked up the SVR information in a post that garnered over 633,000 views and was shared by a number of Telegram channels, including Moldavskii Vagon, the Telegram channel of PSRM deputy Bogdat Țîrdea, which later published the authorities’ denial.
Later, the SVR information was taken over by the fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, who emphasized that he had repeatedly warned that the same “scheme” was being implemented in the Republic of Moldova as in Ukraine. “Sandu will flee, and ordinary people will suffer. We must stop it before it is too late,” Ilan Shor wrote on social networks. His post was shared on a number of Telegram channels, including Mamalîga i tokana and Gagauznews.
In parallel, on the same day, several dozen other Telegram channels picked up the SVR information, including Salut Moldova!, WTF Moldova?!, Pridnestrovets, Po ostree, Grajdanin, Trikolor nad Dnestrom, Insider Moldova, Kompromat SNG, Iz.ru, Ploșeadi Suvorova – Prednestrovie segodnea, Measorubka News, Moldavskaia Politika, Smugleanka, NP Inform. These posts garnered tens of thousands of views on Telegram.
The post on the Telegram channel Lomovka, in which Maia Sandu is accused of taking gas from the people and now plans to fight for the future of the Transnistrian region, has garnered 154 thousand views. The post suggests that the president intends to form a military coalition to “capture” the region, but only if Moldova obtains guarantees of Western political and military support.
Threats of missile attacks on “decision centers in Moldova”
Similarly, after the SVR statement, a member of the Russian State Duma switched to threats. Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Alexei Zhuravlev told Gazeta.Ru that “Sandu is emotionally unstable and completely incapable of negotiation,” so Transnistria should be prepared for an attack, but Russia will protect it. “There are about 2,000 Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria, whom Russia, of course, will protect in every possible way. In addition, the world’s largest ammunition depot has been there since Soviet times, and attacking it is like playing with matches near a powder keg. It is clear that Sandu, who is incapable of thinking independently and only follows the orders of her Western puppeteers, will not be stopped by these facts, but at least the population of Moldova, whom such a president leads to death with trembling hands, should think about this. And in Transnistria we should be prepared for any development of the situation, including a military conflict,” said Juravlev.
The author of the Telegram channel Politjoystik, from Russia, also went on to make threats, asking, “Sandu wants us to launch missile attacks on decision-making centers in Moldova? Okay. We have already gotten rid of the stupid complexes of peaceful diplomacy, military diplomacy is more convincing.” The post has garnered 48 thousand views. The post was picked up by the Telegram channels Moldavia Segodnea. Another Telegram channel, Grajdanin, completed the narrative with the possible involvement of Romania: “Sandu can easily start a war against Transnistria. Romania will help him with this.”
The initial narrative “took on” new layers when Russian analyst Yuri Barancic commented on the SVR report on his Telegram channel and made bellicose statements, emphasizing that “the aggression against Transnistria and the confiscation of Russian property guarantees in time the entry of the Russian Armed Forces into the territory of the Republic of Moldova and the deprivation of its statehood. There is no land bridge between Russia and Transnistria. And at this moment, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to help it seriously. Well, only with missiles on Moldova. We will have to wait until the Russian Armed Forces take Nikolaev and Odessa. And only then will there be positions to restore justice and legality in Transnistria and in the Republic of Moldova itself, which will no longer be “independent”, in the sense of being dependent on the West. The aggression against Transnistria makes the Russian attack on Nikolaev and Odessa have no alternative. It will only be a matter of time.”
By Monday evening, an analytical post had already appeared on the Telegram channel Voennaia Hronika in which the preparation of the military operation on the left bank of the Dniester was presented as a fait accompli, and the authors analyzed whether inciting conflicts in the region could be aimed at disrupting or delaying peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and accusing Moscow of “new aggression.”
What do the authorities say about “Maia Sandu’s plans to prepare a military scenario in the Transnistrian region”
Moldovan officials, including Maia Sandu’s head of administration, Adrian Băluțel, have categorically denied the accusations of preparing a military operation in the Transnistrian region, calling them a dangerous hoax meant to spread panic.
“We reiterate that Chisinau remains firmly committed to the peaceful resolution of the conflict, without exception. An essential step for resolving the conflict is the complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops, which are illegally stationed on the sovereign territory of the Republic of Moldova. It is also manipulative and completely false to blame Chisinau or Kiev for the situation in the region. We specify that there is a clear contract between Moldovagaz and Gazprom, which provides for the delivery of natural gas on the left bank, regardless of the transit route. The current problems stem from Gazprom’s refusal to comply with its contractual obligations, not from the actions of the Government of the Republic of Moldova. The Government is working intensively on solutions to support citizens affected by the crisis, regardless of the region. All people in the Republic of Moldova are our citizens and will be supported in these difficult times,” Adrian Băluțel’s message states.
What the experts say
Commenting on Russia’s accusations that the Moldovan authorities are preparing military actions in the Transnistrian region, WatchDog expert Andrei Curăraru pointed out that these statements are part of a destabilization plan, and the possible scenarios that follow them are worrying.
“The first scenario: a fabricated incident at MGRES. Russia could orchestrate a sabotage or drone attack, presented as coming from Moldova. This would provide them with the pretext to escalate tensions and justify a “protective” intervention in Transnistria. These fabricated crises are typical of the Kremlin.
The second scenario: further accusations of energy sabotage. If MGRES collapses due to technical problems and the switch to coal, Moscow will blame Chisinau. This would divert attention from their own failures and provoke more hostility between Transnistria and Moldova.
The third scenario: escalation of propaganda. Anti-Moldovan rhetoric could intensify, with messages about “military threats” from Chisinau. The goal is to radicalize the Transnistrian population, block any dialogue, and amplify tensions in society.
“These scenarios are not about security, but about chaos. Moldova has only one goal: the peaceful resolution of crises. We cannot let these challenges stop us. The only answer is clarity, transparency and rejection of manipulation,” the Watchdog expert commented.
