The front lines in Ukraine seem increasingly entrenched, and the battles — increasingly devoid of perspective. Behind the scenes of international diplomacy, analysts believe that Vladimir Putin has been given a respite until spring to achieve his objectives in Donbas. After that, if he does not succeed, neither the United States nor China will have any reason to delay the pressure for a ceasefire.
This is the conclusion of Ukrainian political analyst Oleksandr Kocetkov, who argues that, according to information from diplomatic circles, “we have practically reached a set of basic compromises on stopping the fighting”, even if some details will be negotiated later.
Quiet negotiations and a frozen peace
The most likely scenario would be the freezing of the conflict along the current line of contact — a fragmented, fluid front, without the classic continuity of the wars of the last century.
The problem is that Vladimir Putin insists that the Ukrainian army completely withdraws from the Donbas area still under Kiev’s control. Only in this way could he present a “symbolic victory” at home: the war was fought for the “defense of Donbas”, and the objective was achieved.
In return, the Kremlin leader would be willing, according to the same sources, to withdraw from certain parts of the Dnipropetrovsk, Sumi and Kharkov regions — territories partially occupied and difficult to defend. An unequal exchange, which would hit the morale of the Ukrainian army and society, believes Kocetkov.
“A voluntary withdrawal from Donbas would demoralize the troops, weaken internal cohesion and, ultimately, leave Russia a bridgehead for a new offensive in a year or two,” warns the analyst.
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