After four years of war, Russia’s economy seems to become one of the main points of vulnerability of the regime in Moscow. The conflict in Ukraine has pushed it into a state of stagnation combined with high inflation — a phenomenon known as stagflation — which limits economic policy options and amplifies short-term risks, writes Zarkalo Nedeli.
The increase in expenses, the decrease in income
Between 2021 and 2025, the defense and security expenditures of the federal budget increased from 6.5 trillion to almost 20 trillion rubles annually. At the same time, essential revenues — particularly those from the export of oil and petroleum products — were under pressure.
The Russian economy remains heavily dependent on energy, with oil exports accounting for approximately 45% of foreign revenues. This limited structure reduces the ability to adapt to external shocks.
At the beginning of the large-scale invasion, Russia benefited from considerable financial reserves, including the National Welfare Fund and record export revenues. Meanwhile, these reserves have significantly diminished, and military expenses have risen to over 9% of GDP.
The signs of stagflation
The official data indicates an economic contraction of approximately 1.8% at the beginning of 2026. In parallel, alternative estimates suggest that the real inflation could be significantly higher than the reported figures.
This combination — high inflation and economic stagnation — defines stagflation, a difficult situation to manage. Measures intended to reduce inflation can affect economic growth, and stimuli for the economy can accelerate price increases.
The pressure is amplified by the costs of war. The recruitment model, based on financial incentives, involves high expenses for each combatant, which contributes to the increase in the budget deficit.
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