Security experts warn that the Gulf of Finland – a narrow stretch of water between Finland, Estonia, and Russia – could become the trigger point of a direct conflict between Moscow and NATO.
Located between the capitals Helsinki and Tallinn, with Saint Petersburg to the east, this arm of the Baltic Sea has a strategic importance disproportionate to its size. Over the past year, the area has witnessed aerial confrontations, suspicious naval activities, and underwater sabotage incidents, escalating tensions between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance, writes The Sun.
A narrow area, but with global stakes
With a width of only 130 kilometers, the Gulf of Finland is one of the most sensitive maritime regions in Europe. According to international security expert Tom Keatinge, “it is a very narrow space, but extremely militarily charged. Errors or provocations in such places can have unpredictable consequences.”
Russian commercial and oil vessels frequently pass through here, some of them belonging to the so-called “ghost fleet” – a network of ships with hard-to-identify owners, used, according to Western analysts, to transport oil and other goods despite international sanctions imposed on Russia.
“The Gulf of Finland has become a vital link for Moscow’s war economy,” explains Natalie Sabanadze, former Georgian diplomat and expert in Russian foreign policy. “Through these ships, Russia manages to mitigate the effect of sanctions and maintain trade flows.”
“Ghost fleet” and the danger of sabotage
However, several recent incidents suggest that some of these ships are not just transporting oil. In September, French authorities detained a suspicious vessel, accused of participating in the launch of drones into NATO airspace, after it had passed through the Gulf of Finland.
A few months earlier, another ship, Eagle S, had been involved in damaging five submarine telecommunications cables – an incident labeled as “sabotage” by several European capitals.
Sabanadze warns that the lack of strict control in the region could encourage the repetition of such actions: “Whether it’s reconnaissance, sabotage, or illegal transport, these ships take advantage of a surveillance vacuum and create serious risks for European security.”
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